高市交易发酵日元日债同步承压

Group 1 - The Japanese yen has been depreciating significantly since the beginning of 2026, with the USD/JPY exchange rate reaching 159.45, the lowest in 18 months, due to political uncertainty and policy contradictions [1] - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's announcement of a snap election on January 23 has raised concerns about continued aggressive fiscal expansion, contributing to market fears and speculation that the yen could fall to 165 [1][2] - The Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike to 0.75% has failed to stabilize the yen, as the interest rate differential with the US remains over 2.75%, leading to increased pressure on the yen [2] Group 2 - The depreciation of the yen has led to rising import costs for energy and food, exacerbating inflation and putting pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises [2] - The upcoming election results are expected to influence the yen's future trajectory, with predictions that a victory for the ruling party could further weaken the yen, while a loss might trigger a safe-haven appreciation [3] - Official interventions in the currency market have only had short-term effects, highlighting the challenge for Japanese authorities to balance exchange rates, inflation, and fiscal sustainability [3]