2026年能源经济报告预测：国际原油价格下行压力加大

Core Viewpoint - The international oil price is expected to exhibit complex fluctuations in 2025, with a significant decline in the price center compared to 2024, driven by multiple factors affecting supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 1: Price Forecasts - Brent and WTI crude oil average prices are projected to be between $53-$63 per barrel and $49-$59 per barrel respectively in 2025 [1] - In the second half of 2025, oil prices are anticipated to experience low-level wide fluctuations due to expectations of oversupply, with Brent and WTI futures prices hitting annual lows of $58.92 per barrel and $55.27 per barrel respectively [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The average price difference for crude oil in 2025 is expected to narrow significantly to $3.39 per barrel, a decrease of 13.62% from $3.92 per barrel in 2024 [1] - Global crude oil inventory levels are likely to continue rising in 2026 due to oversupply, despite strategic reserves being replenished to optimize inventory structure [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The slowing global economic growth and accelerated energy transition are expected to hinder strong demand growth for crude oil in 2026, leading to insufficient upward momentum for oil prices [2] - OPEC+ is likely to pause its planned production increases, adjusting its output flexibly based on market conditions, while non-OPEC+ supply capabilities will continue to expand, contributing to a loose supply outlook [2] Group 4: Non-Fundamental Influences - The US dollar index is expected to weaken in 2026, with persistent market pessimism and high gold prices contributing to increased uncertainty in oil price movements [2] - Geopolitical conflicts are anticipated to escalate, further intensifying short-term oil price volatility [2]