美政府关门风险暂缓黄金偏强

Group 1: Economic and Legislative Developments - The U.S. Senate passed a "mini omnibus" spending bill with an overwhelming majority of 82 votes in favor and 15 against, covering key departments such as the Department of Justice, Department of Interior, Department of Commerce, Department of Energy, and others, ensuring operations continue until the end of the fiscal year [2] - Another spending bill covering the Department of Treasury and the State Department has passed the House and will be submitted for Senate review after the upcoming recess, indicating a preliminary bipartisan consensus on funding distribution [2] - Over 75% of discretionary funding remains unresolved, including budgets for the Pentagon and several large non-defense projects, which may require temporary measures to maintain operations beyond January 30 if remaining appropriations are not completed [2][3] Group 2: Defense and Domestic Policy Negotiations - The next two weeks are critical for both chambers as complex funding bills are under intense negotiation, with the Department of Homeland Security funding bill facing significant challenges [3] - The House is operating under a slim Republican majority, with Speaker Johnson addressing attendance issues and internal party dissent, particularly regarding specific project funding disputes [3] - The recently passed bill has resisted attempts for significant cuts from hardliners and rejected drastic reductions proposed by the White House, opting for more moderate adjustments [3] Group 3: Gold Market Analysis - The paper gold market is currently experiencing a volatile yet slightly bullish trend, with prices trading above short-term moving averages [4] - The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover, suggesting short-term bullish sentiment, although the RSI is approaching overbought territory, indicating potential for a pullback [4] - Key support and resistance levels are identified at 450 CNY/gram and 460 CNY/gram, respectively, with a breakout above resistance potentially opening up upward movement [4]