Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-16 03:48Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market in 2026 has not experienced the anticipated "opening red" sales, with significant declines in both retail and wholesale figures for passenger vehicles compared to the previous year [1][10] - The adjustment of the new energy vehicle (NEV) purchase tax from full exemption to a 50% reduction has led to increased vehicle costs, impacting consumer purchasing decisions [1][11] - Despite promotional efforts from over 20 automakers to mitigate the effects of policy changes, consumer sentiment remains cautious, with many opting to wait for better deals [4][5][10] Market Performance - From January 1 to January 11, 2026, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 328,000 units, a 32% decrease year-on-year, while wholesale figures were 381,000 units, down 40% year-on-year [1] - The penetration rate of NEVs has dropped significantly, with retail penetration at 35.5% and wholesale at 43.9%, both below the 50% average of 2025 [1] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly comparing NEVs with traditional fuel vehicles due to the increased cost of NEVs, with a price difference of around 10,000 yuan influencing purchasing decisions [2][5] - Many consumers are adopting a wait-and-see approach, seeking to compare various brands and waiting for potential discounts before making a purchase [5][10] Promotional Strategies - Over 20 automakers have introduced promotional policies, including price reductions and extended financing options, to attract buyers amid declining sales [4][5] - BMW has made significant price adjustments, with some models seeing reductions of over 300,000 yuan, reflecting the competitive landscape in the luxury car market [4][5] Inventory and Production - The delivery times for previously popular models have shortened, indicating a shift in demand and production capacity [7] - Some automakers are facing inventory pressure, with certain models being offered at substantial discounts to clear stock [8][10] Industry Trends - The automotive industry is shifting from a focus on price competition to value competition, with an emphasis on product quality and technological advancements [14][15] - The market is expected to see a growth in the 15 to 20 million yuan NEV segment, as automakers adjust their strategies to focus on this profitable market [11][14] Future Outlook - The overall automotive market in China is projected to reach 34.75 million units in 2026, with NEVs expected to grow by 15.2% to 19 million units [14] - The industry is anticipated to undergo a transformation as it adapts to policy changes and consumer preferences, with a focus on enhancing product value and expanding into international markets [14][15]