又爆仓了！知名投行做空白银再遭闷杀：为何同一堵南墙要撞两次？

Core Viewpoint - TD Securities underestimated the momentum in the silver market, leading to a forced exit from their short position for the second time since October last year, resulting in a loss of $606,000 as silver prices surged to a historical high of $93.70 per ounce [3][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver prices increased by over 19% within a week, with a cumulative rise of over 21% since the beginning of the year, despite a recent pullback from the peak [3][8]. - The initial short position was established at $78 per ounce, and the stop-loss was triggered at $93.15 per ounce [3][8]. - The annual index rebalancing was expected to withdraw approximately $5 billion from the market, but this has been fully absorbed by the market according to the latest analysis [3][8]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The silver market appears to be significantly overbought, with a potential turning point on the horizon [5][9]. - A key catalyst for the silver market could be the decision by the Trump administration not to impose tariffs on silver, which has been designated as a critical metal [5][9]. - Concerns regarding the supply of physical silver are expected to ease due to three main factors: a record inventory replenishment wave, a reduction in shortages leading to shorter inventory coverage cycles, and improvements in the fragmented inventory system [5][9].