Higher Brazil Sugar Production Undercuts Sugar Prices

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices have declined to one-week lows due to increased production in Brazil and a negative outlook for global sugar supply, despite potential future reductions in Brazilian output. Group 1: Brazilian Sugar Production - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season has increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.158 million metric tons (MMT) as reported by Unica [1] - The ratio of cane crushed for sugar in Brazil rose to 50.91% in 2025/26 from 48.19% in 2024/25 [1] - Covrig Analytics has raised its estimate for the global sugar surplus in 2025/26 to 4.7 MMT from 4.1 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for prices [2] Group 2: Future Sugar Supply Outlook - Safras & Mercado predicts a decrease in Brazil's sugar production for 2026/27 by 3.91% to 41.8 MMT from 43.5 MMT expected in 2025/26 [3] - Brazil's sugar exports for 2026/27 are expected to decline by 11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [3] Group 3: Indian Sugar Production - Indian sugar production for the 2025-26 season has surged by 25% year-on-year to 11.90 MMT from 9.54 MMT during the same period last year [4] - The Indian Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) has raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year [4] - The Indian government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate domestic supply issues, with a quota of 1.5 MMT for the 2025/26 season [5]