Crypto Long & Short: Markets at Highs, Crypto Still Waiting

Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market Trends - Metaplanet has completed a bearish-to-bullish reversal after an 82% drawdown from its June highs, contrasting with MicroStrategy, which continues to struggle near lows [1] - Monero has formed a decade-long ascending triangle and is poised for higher prices, especially as the privacy-coin narrative gains traction [1] - The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing a phase of institutional adoption, with major financial institutions laying the groundwork for continued involvement [10] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - President Trump's upcoming replacement for Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to initiate a rate-cutting cycle starting in the second quarter, with total Fed assets rising again after the end of quantitative tightening [3] - Following a stronger-than-expected unemployment report, market-implied rate odds for the January FOMC meeting have shifted towards a "no cut" stance, aligning with the Fed's focus on labor data [4] Group 3: Bitcoin Technical Analysis - Bitcoin is showing signs of a potential bullish reversal, forming a double bottom pattern that could target the $100k+ region [7] - Despite a bearish cross in hash ribbons indicating potential weakness, both hashrate and hash ribbons are stabilizing, suggesting a possible inflection point [9] - Bitcoin ETF flows remain negative, with approximately $700 million in outflows reported in the past week [7] Group 4: Blockchain Ecosystem Developments - The 2025 crypto market is characterized by a widening gap between activity and price performance, with total value locked (TVL) increasing in seven of eight ecosystems covered [11][12] - Ethereum's fundamentals have strengthened despite underperformance in price, with increased TVL and stablecoin supply, while Layer 1 revenue has fallen sharply [13] - Solana has seen elevated on-chain usage and a significant expansion in stablecoin market capitalization, although price volatility continues [14] Group 5: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The ratio of Solana ecosystem token volumes over SOL volumes on centralized exchanges has increased over 40%, indicating a return of risk appetite among investors [18] - Application-level monetization and institutional utility are becoming more significant in determining performance across crypto markets [18]