日元大跌倒逼央行提前加息？消息人士：下周或施放重要信号

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) may consider raising interest rates earlier than market expectations, potentially as soon as April, due to the ongoing depreciation of the yen and rising inflation pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - BOJ officials are facing the challenge of increasing borrowing costs after years of ultra-low rates, with the current rate at 0.75%, the highest in 30 years [2]. - Many BOJ decision-makers believe there is room for further rate hikes, with some not ruling out action in April, which is earlier than the previously expected timeline of the second half of the year [2][3]. - A survey indicated that over 75% of analysts expected the next rate hike to occur in September, but internal discussions at the BOJ suggest a potential shift in this timeline [2]. Group 2: Yen Depreciation Concerns - The significant depreciation of the yen since October has raised concerns among BOJ officials regarding the stability of inflation, as it increases the cost of imports, including fuel and food [3]. - The yen's decline has led to warnings from government officials and has heightened uncertainty about whether price pressures will ease as predicted by the BOJ [3]. - There is a growing concern within the BOJ that companies may use the yen's depreciation as a reason to raise product prices, further complicating the inflation outlook [3]. Group 3: Future Projections - The BOJ is expected to revise its economic growth and inflation forecasts during the upcoming monetary policy meeting on January 23, which may signal the pace of future rate hikes [4]. - The BOJ's previous forecast from October projected a 0.7% growth in the economy and a core inflation rate of 1.8% for the fiscal year 2026 [4]. - Analysts suggest that the ongoing yen depreciation may force the BOJ to act sooner than anticipated in addressing inflation risks, with a significant likelihood of an April rate hike and potential further increases in July and October [4].