原油供需仍偏向过剩 期货盘面中长线仍偏空对待

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that crude oil futures are experiencing a weak performance, with the main contract closing at 438.1 yuan per barrel, reflecting a decline of 3.16% [1] Group 2 - Venezuela's oil production reached 1.2 million barrels per day in December [2] - Brazil's state oil company projects its oil production to be 2.4 million barrels per day by 2025, exceeding its own target [2] - The U.S. Energy Secretary reported that the price of Venezuelan oil obtained by the U.S. is currently 30% higher than three weeks ago [2] Group 3 - Huatai Futures suggests that short-term oil prices are influenced by the potential for U.S. military action against Iran, noting that unlike Venezuela, military action against Iran may not yield direct benefits for the U.S. and poses significant challenges [4] - Hualian Futures highlights that the U.S. President has postponed decisions regarding military action against Iran, while U.S. oil production remains high and OPEC+ production has slightly increased [4] - Overall, the oil supply-demand balance appears to lean towards oversupply, but recent oil price movements are primarily driven by geopolitical disturbances, particularly concerning U.S.-Iran relations [4]