传票风暴下的美联储：独立性遭遇百年最大考验 全球资产定价之锚动摇

Core Viewpoint - The investigation surrounding the Federal Reserve's building renovation has escalated into a significant challenge to the independence of the central bank, raising concerns about the stability of global asset pricing as monetary policy becomes intertwined with political demands [1][15]. Group 1: Investigation Details - A criminal investigation has been initiated against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia, marking a historic move as it enters the criminal justice process [2]. - The investigation focuses on a $2.5 billion renovation project for the Federal Reserve's headquarters, which has exceeded its budget by approximately $700 million due to rising costs and unforeseen issues [2]. - The core of the controversy lies in inconsistencies in the project's description, with Powell denying the existence of luxury features during congressional testimony, which contradicts earlier disclosures [2][4]. Group 2: Political Implications - The investigation is viewed as an escalation of long-standing tensions between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, particularly Trump's dissatisfaction with the Fed's reluctance to implement aggressive rate cuts [4][3]. - Powell has characterized the investigation as an unprecedented attempt to undermine the Fed's independence, emphasizing that the central bank's decisions are based on public interest rather than presidential preferences [3][4]. Group 3: Broader Reactions - The investigation has sparked widespread concern about the potential erosion of central bank independence, with international central bank leaders expressing support for Powell and emphasizing the importance of monetary policy autonomy [7][8]. - Former Federal Reserve Chairs, including Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, have condemned the investigation as a dangerous precedent that threatens the independence of central banks [8]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The market is reacting to the uncertainty surrounding Powell's position, with predictions of his potential departure as chairman decreasing following his recent statements [6][9]. - The upcoming Supreme Court hearing regarding the Trump administration's attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook is seen as a critical moment that could define the limits of presidential power over independent regulatory bodies [10][13]. - Analysts warn that if the court rules against Cook, it could significantly increase the likelihood of Powell's removal and lead to a fundamental shift in monetary policy logic, potentially resulting in uncontrolled inflation and asset repricing crises [10][12].