智通财经网·2026-01-16 06:14Core Viewpoint - The report from浦银国际 indicates that with the current strong market sentiment, if Li Ning's brand strength recovers and revenue shows a clear improvement trend, its stock price is expected to gain significant upward momentum. The firm maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning and raises the target price to HKD 23.4, equivalent to 18x 2026 P/E [1]. Group 1: 2025 Performance Expectations - The management anticipates that the overall revenue for 2025 will show a slight year-on-year increase, driven by rapid growth in children's clothing and professional channels, which is better than the initial guidance of "flat year-on-year revenue" [2]. - The firm forecasts Li Ning's total revenue for 2025 to grow by 2.5% year-on-year to RMB 29.4 billion, with net profit reaching RMB 2.75 billion and a net profit margin of 9.4% [2]. - After excluding one-time impairment items from the first half of the year, the core net profit is expected to reach RMB 2.93 billion, with a core net profit margin of 10.0% [2]. Group 2: Future Trends - Li Ning is one of the few sports brands that showed a month-on-month improvement in December revenue, likely due to the launch of the Honor Gold Medal product series at the end of last year [3]. - The short-term revenue performance is significantly influenced by the timing of the New Year and Spring Festival holidays, which may not provide a reliable reference [3]. - With the upcoming Milan Winter Olympics starting on February 6, Li Ning's brand exposure is expected to increase, positively impacting future revenue trends [3]. Group 3: 2026 and Beyond Development Outlook - For 2026, management plans to moderately lower growth expectations for running and badminton categories while expecting improvements in basketball and sports lifestyle categories [4]. - The firm predicts that revenue from the running category will continue to grow over the next two years, accelerating overall revenue growth for Li Ning [4]. - Li Ning will increase marketing expenditures in 2026, with the marketing expense ratio expected to rise year-on-year, focusing on brand reshaping and enhancement over the next three years [4].