智通财经网·2026-01-16 06:16Core Viewpoint - The Chinese commercial aerospace industry is identified as a strategic emerging industry that resonates with national strategy and industrial trends, expected to see significant catalysts in 2026, including reusable rocket technology validation and IPO progress for commercial aerospace companies [1] Industry Status - The industry has developed a complete supply chain consisting of "satellites, rockets, and launch sites" over the past decade, with a current core issue being severe "insufficient capacity" in rocket launch capabilities, which is a bottleneck for scaling the industry [1] - In 2025, there will be a total of 323 orbital rocket launches globally, with the U.S. conducting 193 (SpaceX 165) and China 92 (Long March series 69), indicating a competitive landscape where the U.S. is currently leading [1] - The U.S. has deployed 3,724 satellites compared to China's 372, with the U.S. commercial launch market accounting for 82% of total capacity, approximately ten times that of China [1] Rocket Segment - The key to enhancing commercial aerospace capacity lies in reusable rocket technology, which transforms rocket hardware from "single-use" to "reusable assets," significantly reducing launch costs and increasing launch frequency and total payload [2] - SpaceX's Falcon 9 has achieved 32 reuse records by 2025, while China is expected to begin its first reusable rocket validation in 2026 [2] - The launch cost of Falcon 9 is approximately 18,000 yuan/kg, compared to 85,000 yuan/kg for Ariane 5, indicating a cost reduction of about 4-5 times due to reusable technology [2] Satellite Segment - As of now, SpaceX has launched 10,955 satellites with a long-term plan for about 42,000, while China's StarNet has launched 174 with a plan for 13,000 [3] - China has submitted an application for frequency and orbital resources for an additional 203,000 satellites to the ITU, marking the largest international frequency application action by China [3] - The current satellite deployment by China is just beginning, and with breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology, the satellite network in China is expected to experience significant growth [3] Investment Logic - Short-term: The supply chain for rocket capacity is expected to benefit from the current capacity shortage, with a focus on high-value components such as engines and structural parts [4] - Suggested investment opportunities include companies involved in 3D printing technology, high-barrier rocket materials, and high-quality structural components [4] - Long-term: The breakthrough in reusable technology is anticipated to shift the business model of rocket manufacturers from research and development to launch operations, enhancing profitability and operational efficiency [5] - The demand for satellites is expected to grow rapidly, with satellite companies being identified as having long-term inflationary attributes [6]