张津镭:黄金牛市基石未动摇 但短线警报已拉响

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices may signify a more pronounced daily-level correction after multiple instances of "rally and retreat," driven by both fundamental and technical factors [1][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices showed signs of fatigue during the Asian session, leading to a downward correction, with prices falling below the psychological level of $4600 [1][6]. - The market's decline was not one-sided, as the drop in prices moderated, hovering above $4580 before closing at $4615, indicating a small bearish candle on the daily chart [1][7]. - The dual impact of U.S. President Trump's hints at delaying military action against Iran and strong U.S. employment data contributed to a rise in the dollar index, exerting pressure on gold prices [1][8]. Group 2: Long-term Outlook - The core logic driving the long-term bull market for gold remains intact, supported by global economic uncertainty, central banks' ongoing "de-dollarization" gold purchases, and diversified global asset allocation needs [2][8]. - Trump's unpredictable ability to create market-moving events suggests that any sudden geopolitical or political developments could introduce new variables into the market [2][8]. - From a long-term perspective, the upward trend in gold prices is far from over, with any technical corrections potentially serving to build momentum for future increases [2][8]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The recent price action in gold aligns with expectations of oscillation within a defined range, with the market currently positioned in the lower half of this range [2][8]. - Key resistance levels to watch include the hourly moving averages and the overnight high of $4610-$4620, while support is focused around $4590-$4580 [2][8]. - The likelihood of breaking below $4580 is significant if no new positive fundamentals emerge, with potential targets at the 10-day moving average of $4550-$4540 and the gap from earlier in the week at $4520-$4510 [2][8]. Group 4: Trading Recommendations - Suggested trading strategy for gold includes short positions at $4610-$4612, with a stop loss at $4620 and targets set at $4550, $4520, and $4500 [4][10]. Group 5: Economic Data and Events - Key economic data and events to monitor include U.S. industrial production for December, the NAHB housing market index for January, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials [5][11].