杨华曌:美联储降息预期受挑战 通胀加速或打破市场平衡

Group 1: Silver and Gold Market Dynamics - The recovery of silver, reaching a recent high of over $93 per ounce, has pushed the gold-silver ratio down to 50, the lowest level since March 2012 [1][6] - Silver prices surged nearly 150% last year, continuing to rise into early 2026, while gold prices remain above $4,600 per ounce, up over 6% this year [7] - The increase in metal prices, geopolitical risks, and threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve are raising concerns about potential inflation acceleration in 2026 [7] Group 2: Inflation Concerns and Market Reactions - The current inflation rate remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, raising fears that anticipated rate cuts in 2026 may be jeopardized [7][8] - Despite some fund managers taking precautions, broader financial markets have not fully priced in inflation concerns, as evidenced by the slight increase in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.16% [2][7] - The market is awaiting Trump's nomination for the new Federal Reserve chair, who is expected to favor significant rate cuts [8] Group 3: Japanese Monetary Policy Outlook - Concerns about the new leadership potentially undermining the independence of the Bank of Japan are prevalent, with the yen's depreciation influencing future policy decisions [9] - A Bloomberg survey indicates that all economists expect the Bank of Japan to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.75% during the upcoming meeting [9] - July is seen as the most likely month for the next interest rate hike, with 48% of economists supporting this view [9]