金银比14年来首度跌破50，高盛疾呼：反手做多的时候到了

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing unprecedented interest and activity, driven by geopolitical tensions, record inflows from retail investors, and expectations of U.S. tariffs on silver, leading to significant price volatility and a historic drop in the gold-silver ratio [1][3][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The gold-silver ratio has fallen below 50 for the first time in 14 years, indicating a shift in market dynamics favoring silver [1]. - Silver is at the center of trade tensions, with the U.S. listing it as a critical mineral and China imposing stricter export controls, which has heightened investor interest [3]. - Retail trading activity in silver is currently 2.1 times its three-month average, surpassing both gold and cryptocurrencies, suggesting a structural increase in demand rather than just short-term speculation [5]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Retail investors have injected a record $921.8 million into silver-related ETFs over the past 30 days, marking the largest buying spree in history [6]. - The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has seen an unprecedented 169 consecutive days of net inflows from retail investors, indicating a fundamental shift in asset allocation strategies [6]. - The expectation of potential U.S. tariffs of up to 50% on silver has led to a concentration of silver in the U.S., causing liquidity pressures in the London market and amplifying price volatility [8]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis with Gold - Goldman Sachs notes that despite the current enthusiasm for silver, gold remains a preferred alternative investment for those seeking to diversify away from dollar risk, with a projected 67% performance increase by 2025 [10]. - Gold ETFs currently represent only 0.17% of the U.S. non-cash financial investment portfolio, indicating significant room for growth compared to the peak in 2012 [11]. - The ongoing demand for gold from central banks is expected to continue, with average monthly purchases projected to reach 70 tons by 2026, significantly higher than the 17 tons average in 2022 [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs suggests that the current speculative behavior in silver, driven by physical market tightness, may not be sustainable, and once the excitement fades, the support for silver prices could weaken [14]. - The historical volatility of silver compared to gold suggests that while silver may outperform in certain conditions, the long-term outlook for gold remains strong due to continued central bank purchases and investor diversification [14].