美国袭击伊朗可能性下降 国际油价延续跌势

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices continued to decline as concerns over potential U.S. military action against Iran eased, leading to reduced worries about oil supply risks [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - As of 04:18 GMT, Brent crude oil prices fell by 21 cents, a decrease of 0.3%, to $63.55 per barrel; WTI prices dropped by 15 cents, also down 0.3%, to $59.04 per barrel [1][3]. - Earlier in the week, oil prices had surged to multi-month highs due to rising tensions following protests in Iran and signals from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding possible military action [1][3]. - Despite the recent price drop, Brent crude is still expected to achieve its fourth consecutive weekly increase [1][3]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Predictions - Analysts from BMI noted that while Brent crude prices have retraced some gains, they remain above levels from a week ago, with the recent price decline attributed to Trump's statement about delaying military action against Iran [1][4]. - Phillip Nova's senior market analyst, Priyanka Sachdeva, indicated that current market trends are driven by sentiment, with headlines having a transient impact on oil prices, especially when fundamental factors take a backseat [2][4]. - The oil market's fundamentals still point to ample supply, and unless there is a significant recovery in Chinese oil demand or notable bottlenecks in the physical oil market, international oil prices are likely to remain in a range-bound pattern, with Brent expected to fluctuate between $57 and $67 per barrel [2][4]. - OPEC has predicted that global oil supply and demand will balance by 2026, with demand growth in 2027 expected to be in line with this year's levels [2][4]. - Shell's recent report on energy security outlook for 2026 expresses optimism regarding energy demand and oil consumption growth, forecasting a 25% increase in global primary energy demand by 2050 compared to last year [2][4].