Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-16 07:14Core Viewpoint - Ctrip is facing a potential fine ranging from 4.9 billion to 6.5 billion yuan due to an investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation, which is higher than the fines imposed on other major companies like Meituan and Didi [1][15]. Group 1: Potential Fines - The estimated fine of 6.5 billion yuan is calculated based on the Anti-Monopoly Law, which allows for penalties of 1% to 10% of the previous year's revenue. Assuming a revenue of 65 billion yuan for 2025, the maximum fine could reach 6.5 billion yuan [2][16]. - This fine is significant, as many large companies do not generate this amount in annual net profit, indicating that such a penalty could severely impact Ctrip's financial performance [3][17]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Ctrip reported revenues of 47.1 billion yuan and a net profit of 29 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with an expected total profit exceeding 35 billion yuan for the year [5][19]. - The company has an impressive gross margin of 81% and a market share of 72%, showcasing its strong profitability and market position [7][21]. Group 3: Market Implications - The fine is not merely a financial penalty but is expected to lead to significant business restructuring, particularly targeting revenue streams that operate in gray areas [9][23]. - There are allegations that Ctrip's practices may involve not only price discrimination but also more serious issues such as money laundering and fraud, highlighting the need for a fair competitive environment in the market [9][23]. Group 4: Company Background - Ctrip is registered in the Cayman Islands, indicating its international operational structure [10][24].