Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-16 07:13Core Viewpoint - The essence of the current market's structural differentiation and rotation is excessive liquidity, leading to a pursuit of scarce return assets, with the direction of capital flow determined by "credit expansion" [3][8]. Market Outlook - The Hang Seng Index was at 26,000 points last year, and for 2026, a target range of 28,000 to 29,000 points is projected, primarily due to weaker profit growth in the Hong Kong market compared to the A-share market. However, significant fiscal policy efforts could open up upward space for the index [3][8]. - A-shares are prioritized over Hong Kong stocks based on overall fundamentals and liquidity considerations, but investments in Hong Kong stocks should focus on unique structural opportunities rather than the overall market [3][8]. Key Investment Sectors - Artificial Intelligence (AI): Remains a market focus, with A-shares emphasizing hardware and Hong Kong stocks focusing on internet giants and applications, suggesting a complementary investment approach [3][8]. - Dividend Stocks: These stocks still hold value for balancing portfolio volatility, with Hong Kong having a relative advantage in this area [3][8]. - Cyclical Sectors: Including copper, aluminum, chemicals, engineering machinery, and post-cycle hardware tools, with a recommendation to pay close attention in the first quarter due to potential demand-side stimulus from the U.S. and domestic policy windows [3][8]. - Consumer Sector: Currently lacks strong overall fundamental support for broad recommendations, but a deep value and bottom-up stock selection approach is suggested for exploration [3][8]. Investment Strategy - The four highlighted sectors serve as important bridges for connecting investments between the two markets, with the overarching logic being to "follow the direction of credit expansion," as funds will converge wherever credit expansion occurs, whether domestically or internationally [4][9].