招商基金李刚：债市定价权回归银行配置盘 “固收+”打造穿越周期利器

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in China is undergoing significant structural changes and diversification, with a shift in pricing power towards institutional investors and a growing potential for "fixed income +" strategies amid market volatility [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of September 30, 2025, the total size of China's bond market has exceeded 190 trillion yuan, while the total market capitalization of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has surpassed 100 trillion yuan [2]. - The market capitalization of bonds accounts for approximately 130% of nominal GDP, while that of stocks is close to 80%, indicating room for improvement in the economic securitization rate compared to the U.S. [2]. Group 2: Pricing Dynamics - Since 2025, the pricing logic in the bond market has shifted, with the dominance of pricing for 10-year government bonds moving from trading institutions to banks [2][3]. - The demand from banks for long-term bonds has contributed to a stabilization effect on interest rates, leading to a notable reduction in volatility for 10-year government bonds compared to other bond types [3]. Group 3: "Fixed Income +" Strategy - The "fixed income +" products have seen a significant growth in both scale and performance, with a year-on-year growth rate of 39.5% as of September 30, 2025, while pure bond funds have contracted by 10% [4]. - The A-share market has become a major source of returns for "fixed income +" products, contributing over 60% to their performance, highlighting the strategy's ability to diversify and mitigate risks [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to transition from "scale expansion" to "structural optimization," with a trend towards more refined and specialized product strategies, including tool-based, index-based, and ESG-themed products [5]. - The investor structure is anticipated to diversify further, with an increase in the proportion of long-term funds from banks, insurance companies, and foreign investors, enhancing the global appeal of RMB-denominated bonds [5][6].