世邦魏理仕：租赁和投资需求逐步回升 2026年香港房地产市场有望更均衡发展

Core Insights - The Hong Kong real estate market is expected to show resilience in 2025, despite high vacancy rates and limited impact from interest rate cuts, with a gradual recovery in leasing and investment demand [1][4] - The office leasing momentum is anticipated to strengthen, with tenants favoring quality relocations, while the residential market will benefit from an increasing number of students and professionals [1][4] Office Market - In Q4 2025, Hong Kong achieved a net absorption of 1.5 million square feet, the highest since Q2 2008, with a total annual net absorption of 2.1 million square feet, the best since 2018 [3] - The overall vacancy rate rose by 0.4 percentage points to 17.3% due to 2.9 million square feet of new supply, while Central's vacancy rate decreased to 11.1% [3][4] - Overall rents increased by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, marking the first growth since Q2 2019, although annual rents fell by 2.9%, the smallest decline since 2019 [3][4] Retail Market - The retail leasing market improved for the third consecutive quarter, with Q4 2025 leasing transactions reaching 349,000 square feet, driven by strong demand in the food and beverage sector [7][8] - The vacancy rate in core retail areas decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 5.8%, the lowest since Q4 2019, contributing to a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter rent increase and an annual increase of 2.9% [7][8] Industrial and Logistics Market - The warehouse vacancy rate rose by 1.3 percentage points to a historical high of 13%, with an annual increase of 5.5 percentage points, the largest recorded annual rise [13] - Warehouse rents fell by 2.0% quarter-on-quarter and 8.4% annually, the largest annual decline since 2002, although the industrial and logistics sector showed resilience due to stable external trade growth [13] Investment Market - In Q4 2025, commercial real estate investment in Hong Kong grew by 130% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 20.3 billion, the highest quarterly figure in nearly three years, with total annual investment reaching HKD 44.5 billion, a slight increase of 3% year-on-year [17] - The market was primarily driven by owner-occupiers, accounting for 79% of total investment, with notable acquisitions by mainland Chinese companies and local educational institutions [17] - The investment outlook for 2026 is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of moderate growth of about 5%, driven by further interest rate cuts and active mainland capital [17]