华安基金总经理助理、首席指数投资官许之彦：2026年科技投资将从预期驱动走向业绩兑现

Core Insights - 2025 is viewed as a pivotal year for the technology sector, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence, hardware innovation, and supportive policies, leading to a significant market transformation [1] - The performance of technology-themed ETFs, particularly those represented by the STAR Market and ChiNext, has significantly outperformed the market average, establishing their status as "core growth poles" [2] - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 indicates a transition from structural pain to "micro recovery," with key indicators expected to show positive trends [3] Group 1: 2025 Review - The technology-themed ETFs have shown remarkable performance, with several related funds achieving net value growth rates exceeding 50%, and the ChiNext 50 Index rising by 57% [2] - The strong performance is attributed to the underlying high growth potential, profitability elasticity, and alignment with policy directions, focusing on high-quality companies characterized by innovation and new technologies [2] Group 2: 2026 Macro Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve, with key indicators like PPI, CPI, and PMI projected to recover from low levels, enhancing the corporate profitability landscape [3] - The investment focus in 2026 will shift towards performance certainty, moving away from the previous emphasis on "visions and expectations" [4] Group 3: AI Industry Insights - AI is identified as a long-term structural industry opportunity, with 2026 marking a critical transition from "technology validation" to "scale deployment" [5] - The AI sector is shifting from a focus on infrastructure to application deployment, with significant investments in efficiency and global competitiveness [5] - The core companies in the AI wave are financially healthy, and the demand for computing power is expected to grow significantly over the next 5-10 years [5][6] Group 4: Tooling Configuration - The ChiNext 50 Index is highlighted for its structural advantages, with a balanced industry matrix and a focus on growth and diversification [7] - The index's valuation remains reasonable, with expected annual net profit growth of over 25% in the next three years, indicating a favorable balance between volatility control and growth elasticity [7] - The long-term investment value of the Hong Kong technology sector is increasing, with potential for valuation recovery and phase-based gains [7] Group 5: Conclusion - The key to technology investment in 2026 lies in returning to performance and fundamentals, emphasizing high-quality broad-based indices to navigate market cycles [8] - Focus should be on companies with competitive advantages in the global supply chain, sustained R&D investment, and those entering a profit growth phase [8] - The market's pricing mechanism is shifting from forward-looking expectations to continuous validation of actual operational results, raising the bar for asset allocation and risk management [8]