宏观政策与供需双弱：铸造铝短期呈震荡回调整理格局

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum alloy futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices declining due to various macroeconomic and domestic factors affecting supply and demand dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for casting aluminum alloy (2603) closed at 22,735 yuan, down 525 yuan, representing a decrease of 2.26% [1]. - Trading volume for the day was 187,527 lots, a decrease of 266 lots, while open interest fell by 742 lots to 20,886 [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - The average price for casting aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) was reported at 26,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [1]. - Prices for other aluminum alloy ingots remained stable, with A380 at 25,200 yuan/ton, ADC12 at 23,700 yuan/ton, and ZL102 at 25,400 yuan/ton, all reflecting minor fluctuations [1]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - In the U.S., initial jobless claims unexpectedly decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly below market expectations, indicating a strong labor market [2]. - Federal Reserve officials expressed a preference to maintain interest rates, citing limited concerns about inflation and the potential negative impact of rate cuts on employment [2]. Group 4: Domestic Economic Policies - The People's Bank of China lowered various structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points and announced additional measures to boost market confidence and limit the decline in aluminum futures prices [2]. - The domestic supply of raw aluminum remains tight, with increased costs due to tax adjustments, while demand from downstream sectors is weak due to seasonal factors [2]. Group 5: Industry Outlook - The industry faces challenges with cost transmission issues, profit margins under pressure, and limited consumption, leading to a potential decrease in the operating rate of recycled aluminum [2]. - Overall, the casting aluminum market is characterized by mixed fundamentals, with short-term price adjustments expected to follow cost fluctuations, suggesting a cautious approach to trading [2].