长江有色：16日镍价下跌 采购谨慎整体成交清淡

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a shift from strong expectations to weak realities, leading to price adjustments due to high global inventories and reduced supply constraints from Indonesia [2][3]. Market Performance - The Shanghai nickel futures market showed slight gains, with the main contract closing at 129,460 CNY/ton, up 790 CNY/ton or 0.61% [1]. - The average price of nickel on January 16 was reported at 148,500 CNY/ton, down 3,300 CNY from the previous day [1]. Supply Side Analysis - The nickel market is currently in a marginally loose supply situation, with global visible inventories at high levels, creating downward pressure on prices [3]. - Despite some domestic smelters reducing output due to the upcoming Spring Festival and environmental factors, the import of refined nickel has significantly increased, filling domestic supply gaps [3]. - The reduction in Indonesia's nickel ore quotas for 2026 was less than previously anticipated, weakening the narrative of severe supply tightening [3]. Demand Side Analysis - Nickel demand is facing challenges, particularly in the stainless steel sector, which accounts for about 70% of nickel consumption, due to weak recovery in related industries [4]. - In the new energy battery sector, the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries is expanding, impacting demand for nickel sulfate, with battery manufacturers maintaining only essential purchases [4]. Industry Chain Dynamics - The profit distribution within the nickel industry chain is becoming increasingly imbalanced, with upstream resource companies benefiting from high prices, while midstream and downstream sectors face significant pressure [5][6]. - Midstream nickel iron and nickel sulfate smelting companies are struggling with high raw material costs and declining product prices, leading to reduced operating rates and some companies reporting losses [5][6]. Market Outlook - The current spot market is characterized by low trading activity, with buyers showing minimal purchasing interest, leading to a "price without market" scenario [6]. - Nickel prices are expected to continue their downward trend in the short term, with potential testing of key support levels unless strong driving factors emerge [6].