提前大选风险叠加日本央行决议在即，日元下一步拿了什么“剧本”？

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing volatility due to a combination of factors, including the upcoming elections and potential monetary policy decisions by the Bank of Japan, leading to concerns about possible government intervention to support the currency [1][3][4]. Group 1: Currency Fluctuations - The yen has depreciated to its lowest level against the dollar in 18 months, reaching 159.45, with the dollar trading around 158.60 [3]. - Investors are increasingly worried about the volatility of the yen, especially with the potential for government intervention if the yen continues to weaken [4][5]. - The market is closely monitoring the psychological level of 160, as it may trigger intervention from Japanese authorities [4][6]. Group 2: Political and Economic Factors - Prime Minister Suga has announced the dissolution of the House of Representatives for early elections, which may strengthen his position and allow for increased government spending [3]. - The upcoming Bank of Japan meeting is expected to provide insights into the future path of interest rates, with speculation that the central bank may maintain its current rate [5]. - There is a notable divergence between the performance of the yen and the Nikkei 225 index, which recently reached a historical high, indicating a potential shift in investment strategies in the region [6][7]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies - Hedge funds are betting on further depreciation of the yen, with a significant volume of call options indicating strong bullish sentiment towards the dollar-yen exchange rate [5][6]. - Structural investment demand for the dollar-yen remains robust, with traders anticipating intervention from the Bank of Japan if the exchange rate approaches the 160-165 range [6]. - The correlation between the MSCI Asia-Pacific index and the Bloomberg Asian Dollar Index has recently dropped below zero, suggesting a decoupling of stock market performance from currency movements in the region [7].