景气周期遇上供给瓶颈 有色ETF景顺掘金上游资源机遇

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a rare resonance between its financial and commodity attributes, driven by global central banks' shift towards marginal easing monetary policies and increased investments in energy transition and grid infrastructure. The China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Index saw a significant increase of 104.84% in 2025, making it a hot topic for investors in 2026 [1][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current macroeconomic environment, particularly the expectation of interest rate cuts, is providing favorable support for non-ferrous metals. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, benefiting interest-sensitive non-ferrous metals. Additionally, a declining US dollar index alleviates pressure on commodity prices denominated in dollars, creating a favorable exchange rate environment for the sector [3][9]. - On the supply side, non-ferrous metals face constraints such as declining ore grades, historically low capital expenditures, stricter approvals and environmental regulations, and geopolitical risks, leading to limited supply elasticity. Conversely, demand is surging due to the explosive growth of new energy sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy storage, which increases the usage of lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, aluminum, and rare earths in batteries and motors [3][9]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The ongoing issuance of the Invesco Great Wall China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Theme ETF (code: 560293) provides a convenient tool for investors to capture opportunities in the sector. This ETF tracks the China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Index, focusing on upstream resource leaders [1][5]. - The ETF comprises 39 constituent stocks, including high-growth industrial metals (copper, lithium, rare earths) and defensive precious metals (gold, silver), offering a balanced approach to investment. This diversified allocation allows for both offensive and defensive strategies, potentially reducing the index's drawdown during weaker market periods [5][11]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - Over the past five years, the China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Index has outperformed other non-ferrous metal indices, rising by 106.32%, compared to 95.08% for the segmented non-ferrous index, 93.60% for the China Securities Non-Ferrous Index, and 93.06% for the National Securities Non-Ferrous Index. The index's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 28.94, below the 10-year average of 37.32, indicating good investment value [6][12]. - The implementation of anti-involution policies since July of the previous year has led to a noticeable recovery in the price index for upstream mining and raw materials, aiding in profit recovery for companies in the sector. As of December 2025, the major raw material purchase price index was at 53.1%, remaining in a high expansion range [4][10].