淡水泉赵军展望2026：市场逻辑转向盈利驱动，捕捉“预期差”是核心机会

Group 1: Market Outlook for 2026 - The market logic for 2026 is expected to shift from valuation recovery to profit-driven strategies, with capturing the "expectation gap" being the core opportunity for the year [1][5][20] - Investor sentiment is generally more optimistic, with three anticipated characteristics: increased preference for Chinese assets, a new narrative forming around "Chinese assets," and a focus on profit-driven logic rather than valuation recovery [5][21][22] Group 2: Liquidity and Policy Environment - Liquidity is identified as the most certain favorable factor for the stock market in 2026, with potential for increased stock allocation from both domestic and foreign investors [7][24] - The "anti-involution" policy is showing initial positive effects, with companies exhibiting a mindset change towards reduced competition, which could lead to operational improvements for leading firms [7][24] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - In the short to medium term (6-12 months), the focus should be on identifying "expectation gaps" in low-attention assets across various industries [8][25] - Over a longer horizon (three to five years), key opportunities are expected to arise from technological innovation empowering various sectors and the globalization of Chinese enterprises [8][25] Group 4: Technology Sector Insights - AI is viewed as a long-term positive technology rather than a bubble, with a focus on tracking capital expenditure from leading cloud vendors as a key variable [10][27] - China has advantages in the AI supply chain, particularly in power, manufacturing, and human resources, with significant opportunities in AI applications and integration across industries [10][27][28] Group 5: Consumer and Commodity Strategies - The approach to the "commodity bull market" is to focus on material substitution opportunities and post-cycle investments in mining and exploration, highlighting the competitiveness of Chinese firms [12][29] - In the consumer sector, "new consumption" represents structural opportunities, with a focus on demographic changes and the evolution of channels, emphasizing the need to identify sustainable structural opportunities [12][29] Group 6: Risk Management and Investment Evolution - Key risk management strategies include being cautious of crowded trades and adapting to new market pricing dynamics [15][31] - The company emphasizes the importance of proactive scenario planning to manage uncertainties and improve investment success rates through strategic timing and collaboration among teams [15][33]