瑞银：中欧电动车价格承诺机制，为中国品牌带来长短期双重利好

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of a "price commitment" mechanism instead of high tariffs is a significant benefit for Chinese automotive companies, allowing them to avoid high tariffs and potentially achieve excess profits in a competitive market environment [2] Group 1: Price Commitment Mechanism - The price commitment mechanism is a legal alternative to anti-dumping or anti-subsidy measures under the World Trade Organization framework, where companies submit applications specifying minimum prices and annual export quantities [2] - This mechanism is expected to help improve the profitability of automotive companies and assist in establishing a mid-to-high-end brand image for Chinese vehicles in international markets [2][3] Group 2: Market Trends and Export Growth - Despite a slowdown in domestic demand, the export volume of Chinese vehicles is on the rise, with an expected increase of 1.5 million units in overseas sales by 2026, surpassing the previous average annual increase of 1 million units [3] - In 2025, the export of Chinese passenger cars is projected to reach 5.739 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.7%, with nearly 50% of these being new energy vehicles [3] Group 3: Market Share Projections - By 2030, the market share of Chinese automotive brands in Western Europe is anticipated to rise from 5% to 15%, driven by increased cooperation with local European companies and the expansion of local production capacity [4] - Currently, Chinese automotive brands hold a 20% share in the global market, which is expected to grow to 25% by 2030 [4] Group 4: Challenges Facing the Automotive Market - The introduction of a 5% purchase tax on new energy vehicles in 2026 is expected to negatively impact the automotive market, with significant cost increases for consumers [6] - The new subsidy policy for new vehicles will reduce the financial support for consumers, particularly affecting lower-end models priced between 80,000 to 100,000 yuan [6] - Rising raw material prices, including lithium, copper, and aluminum, are anticipated to increase automotive production costs by several thousand yuan [7] Group 5: Sales Forecasts - The wholesale segment of the domestic automotive market is projected to experience a low single-digit decline in 2026, with retail sales also expected to decline in the mid-single digits, translating to a reduction of approximately 500,000 vehicles sold [7] - For the new energy vehicle sector, sales growth is forecasted at 8%, significantly lower than the previous year's growth of over 30%, with total sales growth expected to reach around 15% when including exports [7]