万孚生物2026年困局将持续？25年四季度亏损进一步扩大 回款疑似恶化

Core Viewpoint - The performance decline of Wanfu Biological is attributed to the dual constraints of centralized procurement and industry regulations in the IVD sector, significantly impacting pricing and sales volume [1][13][17]. Financial Performance - Wanfu Biological's 2025 earnings forecast indicates a net profit of 46 million to 69 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 87.71% to 91.81% [1][14]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a main revenue of 1.69 billion yuan, down 22.52% year-on-year, and a net profit of 134 million yuan, down 69.32% [2][15]. - The third quarter alone saw a main revenue of 445 million yuan, a decline of 26.66% year-on-year, with a net loss of approximately 55.46 million yuan [2][15]. Market Conditions - The IVD market in China experienced a 5.9% decline in size during the first three quarters of 2025, with the biochemical and immunological sectors showing the most significant downturn [20]. - The A-share IVD sector reported total revenue of 27.62 billion yuan, down 14.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.49 billion yuan, down 26.4% [20]. Pricing and Procurement Impact - The IVD industry is facing significant price pressure due to centralized procurement, with some product prices dropping by over 70% [17]. - As of 2024, five rounds of provincial alliance centralized procurement have been completed, covering core products and regions [17]. Regulatory Environment - New policies from the National Health Commission aim to standardize inspection and testing results across medical institutions, which may further impact sales volumes by reducing unnecessary repeat tests [5][19]. - The "minimum necessary" principle has been emphasized in recent regulations, mandating a review of clinical necessity for various testing projects [6][19]. Accounts Receivable Concerns - Wanfu Biological's accounts receivable have surged, with turnover days increasing from 32 days in 2022 to 172 days in 2023, raising concerns about potential impairment risks [12][22]. - As of the last report, accounts receivable amounted to 1.046 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 60% of the company's revenue [22]. Business Segmentation - Chronic disease detection is the largest business segment for Wanfu Biological, contributing 44.66% of revenue, while infectious disease detection accounts for 34% [22][23]. - Both segments have seen significant revenue declines, with chronic disease management revenue dropping by 26.06% and infectious disease revenue by 21.14% year-on-year [22]. Future Outlook - The impact of centralized procurement is expected to persist until 2026, with ongoing challenges anticipated for Wanfu Biological's performance [1][21]. - The company is focusing on stabilizing its overseas business, which is seen as a crucial support for sustainable growth [25].