光伏组件报价涨至超0.8元/瓦，业内预计一季度出货将以海外市场为主

Core Viewpoint - The comprehensive cancellation of export tax rebates has ignited overseas market demand, becoming the main driving force behind the recent increase in photovoltaic (PV) module prices [1][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - PV module prices have seen an increase despite the typical seasonal demand slump in the first quarter, with TOPCon and BC module prices rising above 0.8 yuan per watt [1]. - The transaction price range for distributed PV modules has consistently surpassed 0.67 yuan per watt to 0.8 yuan per watt, with an average price of 0.72 yuan per watt [1]. - Prior to this price increase, PV module prices were constrained by intense competition and insufficient end-user demand, remaining low at around 0.6 yuan per watt by mid-2025 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Export Tax Cancellation - The recent cancellation of export tax rebates has led to a general increase in pricing strategies among PV module manufacturers, with current export prices ranging from 0.09 to 0.13 USD per watt [3]. - The cancellation of the 9% VAT export rebate means that PV module exporters will no longer benefit from tax refunds, resulting in increased costs and a projected reduction in export profits by 46 to 51 yuan per unit for the 210R model [3][5]. - Companies are currently in intensive discussions with overseas distributors regarding the new policy, with potential stockpiling by distributors anticipated before price increases [3][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to stimulate short-term demand in overseas markets, potentially leading to a rapid increase in export volumes before the April 1 deadline [5]. - The expectation of a 9% price increase post-April 1 may drive customers to purchase now, creating a supply-demand imbalance that could further elevate prices and expedite inventory clearance [4]. - However, the sustainability of this high demand in overseas markets remains uncertain in the long term, with forecasts suggesting a potential decline in export volumes by 5% to 10% following the tax cancellation [5].