大周期在途中！汇安基金杨坤河解构有色金属板块投资逻辑

Group 1 - The rapid development of AI is driving the non-ferrous metals industry from a traditional cycle to a new growth era, with expectations for a strong performance in 2025 and continued activity into 2026 [1][2] - The consensus among institutions is that the non-ferrous metals sector is likely to benefit from a bull market driven by monetary, demand, and supply factors in 2026, with a focus on the "AI leap + century change" super cycle [1][2] - Investment strategies should focus on technology and resources, with a particular emphasis on the non-ferrous sector's performance in 2026, supported by factors such as the onset of a Federal Reserve easing cycle and the rise of resource nationalism amid de-globalization [1][2] Group 2 - The global environment is favorable for non-ferrous resources due to a long-term interest rate decline, and 2026 marks the beginning of China's "14th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to bring continued policy support [2] - Supply constraints for global resources are becoming more pronounced, driven by the spread of resource nationalism, which may significantly increase the cost of acquiring upstream resources and lead to heightened safety stock levels in demand countries [2] - Emerging demand in new sectors is expected to resonate with supply constraints, with these sectors showing a higher price acceptance for commodities than previously anticipated [2] Group 3 - The non-ferrous metals sector encompasses numerous sub-sectors, and utilizing professional public fund research teams to invest in the super cycle may become essential [3] - The manager of the Hui'an Quantitative Pioneer Mixed Fund, Yang Kunhe, has a unique background combining industry and finance, which informs his research-driven investment approach [3] - As of the end of 2025, the Hui'an Quantitative Pioneer Mixed A fund achieved a 67.94% annual return, ranking in the top third among comparable equity mixed funds over the past three years [3] Group 4 - Investors are advised to temper expectations for the non-ferrous sector in 2026, as short-term volatility and corrections are likely, despite the overall sector being in a long-term cycle [4] - The investment logic for non-ferrous metals should not be confined to historical strong cycles but should be viewed in the context of the current era [4]