高盛王亚军：2026年港股市场将“涛声依旧”

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong capital market experienced significant growth in 2025, with expectations for continued activity in 2026, described as "涛声依旧" [1] - In 2025, the total equity financing in the Hong Kong stock market reached $96 billion, a 173% increase from $35.2 billion in 2024, indicating a substantial rise [1] - The IPO market in 2025 was robust, with total IPO financing soaring from $11.3 billion in 2024 to $37.5 billion, an increase of over 230% [1] - The refinancing scale, including placements and rights issues, surged from approximately $9 billion to around $45 billion, a growth of about five times, aligning with Goldman Sachs' earlier predictions [1] - Convertible bonds maintained a high financing level of about $20 billion, accounting for approximately 20% of total financing, above historical averages [1] Group 2 - The structural characteristics of the 2025 IPO market showed that nearly half of the financing came from A-share companies listing in Hong Kong, while the other half was from companies listing for the first time in Hong Kong [2] - In 2026, the IPO momentum is expected to continue, with a shift towards more first-time listings, particularly in AI and hard technology sectors, which will test the pricing power and liquidity of the Hong Kong market [2] - The refinancing market is anticipated to remain at high levels in 2026, driven by an increasing number of Chinese enterprises listed in Hong Kong, especially in high capital expenditure sectors like renewable energy and AI [2] - The concentration of Chinese AI and related industry companies going public is highlighted as a key theme for 2026, with significant capital needs still present in the sector [2] Group 3 - The phenomenon of new stocks breaking below their issue price in Q4 2025 is explained as a normal price discovery mechanism in mature markets, with no fundamental shift in the Hong Kong market [3] - Consumer stocks are emphasized as a core attraction for the Hong Kong market in 2026 due to their simple and transparent business models, predictable earnings growth, and attractive valuations [3]