GGII：2025年锂电正极材料出货增长50% 行业迎“量价齐升”

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth forecast for China's lithium battery cathode materials, with shipments expected to reach 5.025 million tons by 2025, a 50% increase year-on-year, and projected to exceed 6.5 million tons in 2026, driven by rising downstream demand, stabilized upstream raw material prices, and technological advancements [1][3]. Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - The year 2025 is identified as a pivotal year for the lithium battery cathode materials industry, with growth rates leading among various segments of the lithium battery supply chain [3]. - Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) is expected to maintain its dominant position with shipments of 3.87 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 58%, accounting for 77.4% of the market share, primarily due to its cost and safety advantages in power batteries and energy storage [3]. - Nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) materials are projected to ship 830,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.4%, with a notable concentration of customers leading to increased bargaining power for major battery manufacturers [3][4]. Group 2: Emerging Materials - New materials are experiencing explosive growth, with lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) shipments expected to surge from 8,000 tons in 2024 to 30,000 tons in 2025, marking a staggering year-on-year growth of 275% [4]. - Lithium-rich manganese-based (LRM) materials are also gaining traction, with shipments rising to 4,000 tons, benefiting from cobalt price increases and a trend towards lower cobalt content in battery production [4]. Group 3: Raw Material Price Trends - As of early 2026, there has been a significant increase in the prices of key upstream raw materials for lithium battery cathode materials, with cobalt prices soaring from 168,000 yuan/ton to approximately 460,000 yuan/ton, an increase of over 170% [6][7]. - The price of lithium carbonate has risen by nearly 60%, while other materials such as iron sulfate and manganese sulfate have also seen substantial price increases, contributing to a projected 30% rise in the average price of cathode materials in 2026 compared to 2025 [6][7].