Core Viewpoint - The traditional logic that central bank interest rate hikes lead to currency appreciation does not apply to Japan, where the Bank of Japan raised rates twice in 2025 by a total of 50 basis points, yet the yen depreciated significantly against the USD [1][3]. Economic Indicators - Japan's current GDP is 4026 billion, with a GDP growth rate of -0.60% and an interest rate of 0.75%, which is significantly lower than the US (3.75%), China (3%), and Germany (2.15%) [2][7]. - The inflation rate in Japan stands at 2.90%, with a jobless rate of 2.60% [2][7]. Currency Dynamics - Despite the interest rate hikes, the yen remains a "funding currency," as financial institutions borrow yen at low rates and convert it to higher-yielding currencies and assets, leading to capital outflows from Japan [2][8]. - The depreciation of the yen during the Bank of Japan's rate hikes indicates that other impactful factors are influencing its value [1][3]. Future Projections - It is anticipated that the Bank of Japan will raise rates twice more in 2026, each by 25 basis points, potentially bringing the benchmark rate to 1.25% by year-end [3][9]. - With the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates by a total of 75 basis points in 2026, the interest rate differential between Japan and the US may narrow significantly, which could lead to a potential appreciation of the yen [9]. Market Sentiment - There is a prevailing view that the Bank of Japan's rate hikes may be a short-term measure due to unstable inflation, which could lead to a larger recession in Japan, contributing to the ongoing depreciation of the yen [3][9]. Market Analysis - In the short term, the USDJPY is experiencing a corrective phase, with a recent low of 157.95, showing signs of support but still facing potential downward movement [6][12].
ATFX:日本央行持续加息 为何日元贬值逼近160
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-16 11:59