分析：澳大利亚央行加息可能性或大于预期

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is facing pressure to potentially raise interest rates amid strong economic indicators, contrasting with the Federal Reserve's inclination to lower rates, which could impact global forex and fixed income markets [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The RBA's upcoming meeting in February is set against a backdrop of concerning indicators for investors accustomed to loose monetary policy, including persistent price pressures, strong private sector demand, and a booming real estate market [1][5]. - Upcoming inflation data for the three months ending in December is crucial; if it shows trimmed mean inflation above the RBA's 2%-3% target, the RBA may have no choice but to act [1][5]. - Current household spending is robust, economic growth is steady, core and overall inflation are above targets, and unit labor costs have risen, although productivity growth remains weak [1][5]. Group 2: Interest Rate Predictions - RBA Governor Michele Bullock's recommendations may focus on actions to mitigate inflation risks, with expectations that the RBA will raise rates in February and again in May, reflecting a historical pattern of consecutive rate changes [2][6]. - Some economists predict that if CPI momentum slows, the RBA may pause after a February hike but could raise rates again later in the year [2][6]. - There is a consensus that Australia is not on the verge of an aggressive tightening cycle, as the RBA has been cautious in its rate adjustments compared to other central banks [2][6]. Group 3: Currency and Market Reactions - The potential for the RBA to maintain or raise rates while the Federal Reserve lowers them could widen the interest rate differential favoring Australia, potentially leading to an appreciation of the Australian dollar [3][7]. - The Australian dollar is nearing its highest level since October 2024, trading at 0.6705 USD [3][7].