ZFX山海证券:关税暂缓引银价回调 长期看涨

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has entered a period of volatility after a remarkable 30% increase, influenced by the U.S. government's decision to delay import tariffs on critical minerals, which has eased supply chain pressures but left room for future restrictions [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Silver prices retreated from the $93 mark to around $90, with a daily drop exceeding 3%, but showed strong resilience near $86 [2][4]. - The recent sell-off is viewed as a physiological correction following the announcement, rather than a fundamental shift in market dynamics [4]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - The U.S. government is focusing on trade negotiations rather than direct tariffs to secure supply chains, given the high dependency on imports for critical minerals [1][4]. - Despite temporary relief from U.S. policy, global physical shortages persist, particularly in the Asian market, which limits downward pressure on silver prices [2][4]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The bullish trend in the silver market remains intact, with structural deficits expected to continue, despite an increase in scrap silver recovery in Western markets [3][5]. - The bottleneck in high-purity refining capacity will slow the return of physical silver to the market, making the rebuilding of surface inventories a slow process [5].