FXGT:2026贵金属补涨潮延续

Core Insights - The precious metals market remains vibrant as it enters 2026, with various metals exhibiting different growth potentials influenced by interest rate paths and inflation cycles [1] - FXGT notes that while gold, silver, and platinum group metals (PGM) share similar macro support, their unique supply-demand dynamics are significantly altering their relative performance in investment portfolios [1] Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - By early January 2026, gold has surpassed the $4,500 mark, while silver and platinum are approaching or breaking historical highs [1] - From the end of 2024 to early January 2026, silver has led the precious metals sector with a 170% increase, followed by platinum and palladium, while gold's 65% increase appears relatively moderate [1] - The current market dynamics reflect a "catch-up" effect of silver against gold, driven by new demand in battery and solar sectors, as well as silver's role as a high-beta substitute for gold [1] Group 2: Platinum Group Metals Outlook - FXGT observes that platinum remains historically undervalued relative to gold, currently priced at about half of gold's value, indicating potential for price recovery [2] - Despite past challenges due to declining demand from diesel vehicles, platinum's price has room for improvement compared to its peak value of 2.5 times gold's price in 2007 [2] - Palladium faces long-term threats from the rise of electric vehicles, but potential delays in subsidy reductions by major economies may provide temporary relief for palladium prices [2] Group 3: Macroeconomic Considerations - Investors should closely monitor the resonance of global fiscal and monetary policies, as many major economies maintain large budget deficits and are relaxing fiscal constraints for military and infrastructure spending, which is favorable for precious metals in the long term [2] - The upcoming leadership change at the Federal Reserve in May 2026 may increase uncertainty in monetary policy, potentially heightening market volatility [2] - Given that the gold market is significantly larger than that of silver and PGM, even a small outflow of safe-haven funds from gold can have a substantial multiplier effect on the prices of the latter [2]