Xin Lang Zheng Quan·2026-01-16 12:22Group 1 - The 2026 Global and China Capital Market Outlook Forum was held on January 15, focusing on new wealth logic in the AI era and the future of capital markets [1] - Liu Gang, Chief Analyst of CICC's Research Department, emphasized that investment in Hong Kong stocks in 2026 should focus on sectors with credit expansion potential, including AI technology, dividends, cycles, and consumption [1] - Key sectors to watch include AI industry, robotics, and those benefiting from external demand and capacity clearing, such as power equipment, chemicals, building materials, coal, and dairy [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market has lagged behind since October 2025, with the Hang Seng Technology Index showing the weakest performance among major indices [5] - The market is experiencing significant rotation, with a focus on valuation contributions and structural changes rather than broad market movements [5] - The credit cycle is crucial for identifying "scarce assets," with expectations for dividend growth in 2024, tech innovation in 2025, and balanced structural growth in 2026 [7][10] Group 3 - The U.S. credit cycle is gradually recovering, potentially leading to overheating, while China's credit cycle is expected to face structural challenges and slow down [10] - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to reach 6.4% in 2026, with an annual investment increase of approximately $1 trillion, contributing to economic growth [17][19] - The focus on technology and new consumption is expected to drive demand, while traditional sectors like real estate may require further interest rate cuts to stabilize [20][14]