瑞银：2026年中国资产吸引力有望进一步提升

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Market Growth - The 26th UBS Greater China Conference highlighted that macroeconomic stability, rapid growth in A-share earnings, and signs of long-term capital inflows will lay a crucial foundation for investment in China's capital markets by 2026 [1] - UBS's China Head of Global Financial Markets, Fang Dongming, stated that the stability of the Chinese economy and the initiation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" will significantly support capital market investments [2] - A-share earnings are expected to grow by approximately 8% in 2026, primarily driven by non-financial sectors, providing some support for market valuations [2] Group 2: Institutional Investor Trends - There are increasing signs of medium to long-term capital entering the market, with active public fund issuance recovering moderately, although still below the peaks of 2020-2021 [3] - The scale of thematic ETFs surged from 100 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 450 billion yuan by year-end, indicating strong interest in sectors like artificial intelligence and robotics [3] - Insurance funds are increasing their equity allocations, with the proportion of stocks in investment assets rising to about 15% by Q3 2025, potentially bringing in an annual increment of 300 billion to 500 billion yuan to A-shares [3] Group 3: International Investor Interest - Since 2025, there has been a notable increase in overseas investors' interest in Chinese assets, with active overseas funds beginning to reallocate towards China [4] - The allocation level of foreign capital in the Chinese market has risen from a low of 0.6 percentage points at the end of 2023 to 1.3 percentage points, indicating room for further growth [4] - The increasing attractiveness of Chinese assets is expected to enhance in 2026, as global investors seek diversification and recognize China's transformation and growth potential [4] Group 4: Foreign Investment in Hong Kong - In 2025, foreign participation in the Hong Kong primary market significantly increased, with several foreign institutions making their debut in cornerstone investments [5] - The influx of southbound and global funds into the Hong Kong market has been clear, contributing to a strong performance in the primary market [5] - The trend of cross-border mergers and acquisitions is expected to continue into 2026, driven by various factors including strategic evaluations by multinational companies and frequent public acquisition transactions [6]