AB InBev vs. Boston Beer: Which Brewer is a Better Investment Now?

Core Insights - The beverage landscape is evolving, with Anheuser-Busch InBev (AB InBev) and The Boston Beer Company (Boston Beer) as key competitors in the alcoholic beverage market, each adapting to changing consumer preferences [1][2] Group 1: AB InBev (BUD) - BUD dominates the brewing industry through an extensive sourcing and distribution network, focusing on premiumization, digital transformation, and brand equity investment [2] - Premiumization is a central growth strategy for BUD, with strong performances from premium and super-premium brands, despite flat growth in the above-core portfolio due to challenges in China [4][9] - BUD's digital platforms, including BEES and Zé Delivery, are crucial for customer engagement, generating $13.3 billion in gross merchandise value (GMV), with a year-over-year increase of 11% [5][6] - The company’s global operating model allows it to adapt to local market dynamics, with megabrand revenues increasing by 3% year over year, driven by strong consumer demand [7] - BUD is expanding its portfolio beyond traditional beer, targeting a year-over-year EBITDA growth of 4-8% in 2025 [8][9] - BUD's sales are projected to decrease by 1.3% in 2025, but earnings per share (EPS) are expected to grow by 3.1% [14] Group 2: Boston Beer (SAM) - Boston Beer has a strong craft heritage and is diversifying its portfolio to include hard seltzers, ciders, and flavored malt beverages, but faces challenges in the competitive craft beer market [10][12] - The Samuel Adams brand, while iconic, is struggling with competition and changing consumer preferences, prompting Boston Beer to focus on revitalization and cost-efficiency [11] - Boston Beer is experiencing a slowdown in the hard seltzer category, with management forecasting a negative impact from tariffs of $9-$13 million in 2025 [13] - Sales for Boston Beer are expected to decline by 2.4% in 2025, with a modest EPS growth of 0.7% [14] Group 3: Performance and Valuation Comparison - Over the past year, BUD has outperformed with a total return of 43.2%, compared to the industry growth of 10.8% and Boston Beer’s decline of 14.4% [17] - BUD trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 16.56X, slightly above the industry average, while Boston Beer trades at a higher multiple of 18.95X [19][20] - BUD's valuation reflects strong momentum in high-growth brands, while Boston Beer faces uncertainty due to ongoing challenges in the craft beer segment [21][25] Conclusion - AB InBev is positioned as a more compelling investment opportunity due to its strong stock performance, attractive valuation, and clear growth strategy, while Boston Beer presents a longer-term opportunity amid its diversification efforts [25][26][27]