Travelers Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: Here's What to Expect

Core Insights - The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) is anticipated to experience a decline in earnings but an increase in revenues for the fourth quarter of 2025, with revenue expected to reach $12.41 billion, reflecting a 2.9% growth year-over-year [1] - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is $8.37, indicating an 8.5% decrease compared to the previous year, although the estimate has increased by 0.3% in the last 30 days [2] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TRV's fourth-quarter revenues is $12.41 billion, which represents a 2.9% increase from the prior year [1] - The earnings estimate is $8.37 per share, which is a decrease of 8.5% year-over-year, despite a slight upward revision in the last month [2] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for Travelers, as it lacks the necessary combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank [3] - TRV has an Earnings ESP of -0.10%, with the Most Accurate Estimate at $8.36, which is lower than the consensus estimate [4] Segment Performance - All three segments are expected to perform better, contributing positively to the fourth-quarter results [5] - Premiums are projected to increase by 1.9% to $11 billion, driven by improved pricing, strong retention, and exposure growth [5] - The Personal Insurance segment is estimated to generate $4.5 billion in premiums, a 4.1% increase year-over-year [7] - The Bond & Specialty Insurance segment is expected to reach $1 billion in premiums, reflecting a 0.1% improvement from the previous year [8] - The Business Insurance segment is projected to generate $5.5 billion in premiums, indicating a 0.6% increase year-over-year [10] Investment Income and Underwriting - Investment income is expected to rise due to higher fixed income yields, with net investment income estimated at $1 billion, a 10.4% increase from the previous year [6] - The underwriting profitability is anticipated to improve, with a combined ratio estimated at 84.4, compared to the consensus estimate of 87 [11] Expense Outlook - Total expenses are expected to rise by 8.3% to $10.2 billion, influenced by higher claims and administrative costs [12] - Continued share buybacks are anticipated to provide additional support to the bottom line [12]