JPM26: Dealmaking optimism at JPM 2026 despite absence of mega-M&As

Investment Themes - The J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference 2026 focused on value creation through internal pipeline prioritization and billion-dollar licensing agreements, rather than large biopharmaceutical mergers and acquisitions [1] M&A Activity - Lower interest rates and deregulation from the Trump era fueled large biopharmaceutical M&A activity in 2025, with a 59.3% increase in total M&A deal value in Q4 2025 compared to Q3 2025, reaching $80.2 billion [2] - Positive sentiment for M&A activity is expected to continue into 2026, supported by reduced uncertainty around Trump's tariff policies [2] Venture Capital and IPOs - Biotech venture financing showed recovery with a 35% increase in Q4 2025 compared to Q3 2025, totaling $5 billion in deal value [2] - Public markets are showing signs of reopening, with a 157% increase in IPO deal volume in Q4 2025 compared to Q4 2024 [3] - Aktis Oncology completed the first biopharmaceutical IPO of 2026, raising approximately $365 million [3] Rumored Acquisitions - Prior to the conference, there were rumors of Merck & Co acquiring Revolution Medicines for $32 billion and Eli Lilly acquiring Abivax for €15 billion ($17.5 billion), though these were not confirmed [4] - Merck & Co's CEO expressed openness to large-scale deals, indicating a strong appetite for significant biopharmaceutical transactions [4] Licensing Agreements - AbbVie announced a licensing agreement with RemeGen for a Phase II bispecific antibody drug, RC148, valued at $5.6 billion [5] - Novartis signed a licensing agreement worth over $1.6 billion with SciNeuro Pharmaceuticals for amyloid beta antibody drug candidates for Alzheimer's treatment [5] - Novartis also entered a $50 million licensing agreement with Zonsen PepLib Biotech for global rights to an undisclosed peptide-based radioligand therapy for oncology [5]