The $700M in Market Share ‘Up for Grabs’ in the Saks Global Bankruptcy

Core Insights - Saks Global's bankruptcy presents an opportunity for competitors to capture market share, with an estimated $700 million available for those who can capitalize on the situation [1][5]. Store Closures - Saks Global operates 70 department stores across its brands, including Neiman Marcus and Bergdorf Goodman, and is expected to close at least 20 stores, primarily affecting the Saks chain [2][3]. - The decision on which stores will close will be made by a federal bankruptcy judge, but preliminary assessments indicate potential cuts in locations where both Saks and Neiman Marcus operate [2][3]. Market Share Impact - The potential market share opening due to Saks Global's closures could range from $500 million to $1 billion, with a midpoint estimate of $700 million based on the closure of 20% of stores and their reduced productivity [5]. - Saks Global's estimated fiscal 2025 sales are approximately $6.5 billion, leading to an 11% share displacement as a result of the closures [5]. Competitor Analysis - Competitors such as Nordstrom, Bloomingdale's, and Macy's are positioned to benefit significantly, with Nordstrom having a 25% overlap with Saks Global and Bloomingdale's at 22% [6]. - Macy's could gain approximately $300 million, while Nordstrom might see an incremental increase of around $170 million in sales due to the market shift [6]. - LuxExperience is projected to capture about $60 million in additional sales, while Revolve could gain between $45 million to $50 million [7].