FOLD Rises 136% in 6 Months: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Insights - Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD) shares have surged 135.8% over the past six months, significantly outperforming the industry and the S&P 500 Index, driven by strong product momentum and a merger agreement with BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) [1][8]. Company Overview - BioMarin has agreed to acquire all outstanding shares of Amicus for $14.50 per share, totaling $4.8 billion, with the deal expected to close in Q2 2026 [3]. - Post-acquisition, BioMarin will integrate Amicus' marketed products, including Galafold (migalastat) and the combination therapy Pombiliti (cipaglucosidase alfa) + Opfolda (miglustat), both of which have shown steady sales growth [3][4]. Product Performance - Galafold generated sales of $371.5 million in the first nine months of 2025, accounting for over 80% of Amicus' net product sales, with a year-over-year growth of approximately 12% [6][9]. - Pombiliti + Opfolda achieved sales of $77.5 million in the same period, reflecting a 61% increase year-over-year, indicating strong market potential [10]. Competitive Landscape - Amicus faces significant competition in the lysosomal storage disorder market, particularly from established players like Sanofi and Takeda, which market therapies for Fabry disease and Pompe disease [11][12][13]. - The company's heavy reliance on Galafold for revenue poses a risk, especially with increasing competition [11]. Valuation and Estimates - Amicus shares are currently trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 7.42, which is above the industry average of 2.51, but below its five-year mean of 8.82 [14]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings per share (EPS) has slightly increased from 34 cents to 35 cents, while estimates for 2026 have decreased from 67 cents to 65 cents [15]. Investment Outlook - The strong sales performance of Amicus' marketed products is expected to continue driving revenue growth, with incremental contributions from Pombiliti + Opfolda [17]. - Given the impending acquisition by BioMarin, investment strategies should focus on event-driven trading rather than long-term growth [18]. - Despite competitive risks, Amicus' unique positioning in the rare disease market and stable earnings estimates suggest a positive outlook, making it a potential addition for investors seeking short-term gains before the acquisition [19].