【新华解读】2025年社融增超35万亿 货币政策适度宽松有力护航经济

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's monetary policy is expected to be moderately accommodative, supporting economic recovery with significant growth in credit and social financing, indicating a positive trend for the economy [1][7]. Group 1: Credit and Financing Growth - In 2025, new RMB loans are projected to reach 16.27 trillion yuan, with a total social financing increment of 35.6 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 3.34 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [1][3]. - By the end of 2025, the total social financing stock is expected to grow by 8.3% year-on-year, while the broad money supply (M2) is anticipated to increase by 8.5%, both significantly exceeding nominal GDP growth rates [1][6]. - In December 2025, RMB loans increased by 910 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 80 billion yuan but a month-on-month increase of 520 billion yuan, indicating a stronger demand from enterprises compared to households [2][3]. Group 2: Structural Optimization - The structure of financing is improving, with non-loan financing methods contributing significantly to the total social financing increment, surpassing 50% of the total, reflecting the effectiveness of financial supply-side structural reforms [3][5]. - By the end of 2025, the balance of medium- and long-term loans in the manufacturing sector is expected to grow by 6.6%, while infrastructure loans are projected to increase by 6.9%, and services (excluding real estate) by 9.4% [4][5]. Group 3: Interest Rates and Costs - The average interest rates for newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans are approximately 3.1%, showing a decline of 2.5 and 2.6 percentage points since the second half of 2018 [5][6]. - The financing costs are decreasing, with the new loan rates for technology and digital economy sectors being 2.81% and 2.7%, respectively, both lower than the previous year [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - For 2026, it is anticipated that more proactive macroeconomic policies will continue to enhance counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, with expected new credit of about 18 trillion yuan and social financing increment reaching 38 trillion yuan [7].