资管一线 | 2026年投资风向标在哪？财通基金聚焦周期、科技、医药等赛道机会

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2026 is expected to exhibit structural characteristics driven by leading companies and fundamentals, focusing on opportunities in cycles, technology, and pharmaceuticals, as well as the theme of companies going global [1][3]. Fundamental Drivers - The current global economic landscape is undergoing significant adjustments, with a focus on high-quality development in the domestic economy. The selection of stocks should meet four core criteria: potential returns, competitive barriers, short-term demand changes leading to growth, and significant long-term growth potential [2][3]. Market Outlook - The A-share market is anticipated to show a pronounced concentration of leading companies and fundamental-driven characteristics. This will manifest in three dimensions: a highly structured market favoring a few companies with real and sustainable performance; leading companies with strong barriers and growth; and a focus on fundamentals where market pricing will closely align with companies' growth capabilities over the next one to two years [3]. Opportunities in Segmented Fields - The investment team is exploring opportunities in segmented fields, particularly in cycles, technology, and pharmaceuticals. The focus on cycles is driven by the bottoming out of corporate capacity and policies promoting absolute capacity clearance, with demand supported by various factors including potential interest rate cuts overseas and strong infrastructure needs in emerging markets [4][6]. Specific Focus Areas - In the cyclical sector, four key areas are highlighted: non-ferrous metals, aluminum, lithium carbonate driven by energy storage, and chemical products with improving supply-demand dynamics. The technology sector remains a primary focus, with strong investment interest and clear demand signals emerging [6][7]. Pharmaceutical Sector Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is centered on innovation and global expansion, with significant potential in the innovative drug sector, particularly in dual-antibody and small nucleic acid therapies. The medical device sector is also gaining attention, especially in surgical robotics and AI applications in healthcare [7][8]. Global Expansion Strategy - The theme of "going global" is emphasized, focusing on companies capable of moving into high-value sectors and possessing brand strength and global competitiveness. Key selection criteria include capacity for overseas production, technological and brand capabilities, and cultural outreach [8][9]. Performance of Companies with Global Revenue - Companies with a higher proportion of overseas revenue tend to show greater resilience and growth potential. As the global manufacturing sector may enter a replenishment cycle, Chinese manufacturing firms with global competitive advantages are expected to expand their market share through international ventures [9].