Arthur Hayes: Dollar Liquidity Will Drive BTC Higher in 2026

Core Insights - Bitcoin's weak performance in 2025 is attributed to tightening dollar liquidity, with a 14.4% decline in value while gold increased by 44.4% during the same period [1] - The price of Bitcoin is expected to rise sharply in 2026 due to anticipated expansion in dollar liquidity driven by clearer policies and increased bank lending [2][3] Bitcoin Price Structure and Holder Behavior - Bitcoin is currently trading near $96,200, reflecting an 11.5% increase over the past month, having recently surpassed the $94,200 resistance level [4] - On-chain data indicates a historically low Value Days Destroyed indicator of 0.53, suggesting that younger coins are being moved while long-term holders remain inactive, indicating strong confidence among investors [5] - The Bitcoin derivatives market has seen a significant deleveraging phase, with open interest dropping over 31% from its October 2025 peak of over $15 billion to around $10 billion [5][6] Future Predictions - Consistent monetary expansion is deemed necessary for Bitcoin to trade near or above $100,000, with predictions of reaching $150,000 in the first quarter of 2026 [3][6]