特朗普希望哈塞特留任 推动美国国债收益率升至四个月高位

Group 1 - There are indications that President Trump will not choose his chief economic advisor Kevin Hassett to be the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which has startled the bond market after months of calm [1][2] - The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has been hovering around 4% to 4.2% for over four months, but it broke above this range on Friday, potentially closing above 4.2% for the first time since September 3 of last year [1][2] - The rise in yields followed Trump's public statement to Hassett that he preferred him to remain in his current position rather than move to the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant jump in yields [1][2] Group 2 - The bond market's reaction contradicts some investors' arguments that if Hassett were chosen to lead the Federal Reserve, yields and borrowing costs for the economy would rise [1][2] - Critics have expressed concerns that Hassett would be more loyal to Trump than other candidates and that interest rate cuts could exceed what economic data would reasonably support [1][2] - U.S. Treasury yields largely reflect investors' expectations of the average level of interest rates set by the Federal Reserve over the life of the bonds; overly aggressive rate cuts could raise concerns about inflation and the risk of significantly higher future rates, potentially leading to an increase in long-term U.S. Treasury yields [1][2] Group 3 - The increase in yields on Friday indicates that investors are making a more direct calculation: if the Federal Reserve cuts rates more in the short term, even long-term yields should be lower; conversely, if there are fewer cuts, long-term yields would be higher [1][2]