Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2026-01-16 20:47Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a steady upward trend supported by policy, economic stabilization, and improved liquidity, with a focus on investment logic and layout direction as the Spring Festival approaches [1][2] Policy Support - Regulatory bodies are guiding the A-share market towards a "gradual rise" pattern, with mechanisms for long-term capital entering the market being continuously improved, enhancing market stability [2] - Policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, such as fertility subsidies, are being implemented, which are expected to stabilize and improve the return on equity (ROE) for related listed companies [2] Economic Signals - The overall revenue growth rate for A-shares improved from -0.02% in the first half of 2025 to 1.2% in the third quarter, while net profit growth increased from 2.5% to 5.3% during the same period, indicating a trend of improving profitability [2] - Forecasts for 2026 suggest a stable macroeconomic environment with net profit growth expected to be 4.8% for the year, peaking in the second quarter [2] Long-term Capital Inflow - Long-term capital, particularly from insurance funds, is becoming a major source of market liquidity, with an estimated potential inflow of approximately 1.73 trillion yuan based on 2025 insurance premium income [3] - This influx of stable capital is expected to reduce market volatility and enhance internal stability [3] Market Structure and Opportunities - Structural opportunities are evident, with 39 out of 360 industry or thematic ETFs reaching new highs in December 2025, particularly in sectors like telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and military aerospace [3] - The market is characterized by a significant divergence in performance, with small-cap stocks and thematic sectors outperforming larger indices [5] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment is showing signs of recovery, with a sentiment index reading of 98.1 on January 9, 2026, indicating a high level of optimism [4] - The market is currently in a phase where emotional recovery and capital reallocation are key themes, especially as the Spring Festival approaches [4][5] Investment Strategy - Investment strategies should focus on three dimensions: consensus direction, counter-consensus direction, and long-term investments, while also considering the opportunities presented by the appreciation of the renminbi [6][8] - In the consensus direction, sectors like non-ferrous metals and semiconductors are highlighted as key areas for institutional investment [7] - For counter-consensus investments, sectors related to domestic demand, such as travel services and quality real estate developers, are recommended due to their potential for valuation recovery [7] Long-term Considerations - There is a growing demand for investments that reduce volatility, with a focus on sectors that have room for ROE improvement, such as chemicals and renewable energy [8] - The appreciation of the renminbi is expected to create investment opportunities, particularly in industries like paper and aviation, which have already seen positive effects [8]