The St. Joe Company (JOE): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - The St. Joe Company (JOE) is positioned to benefit from internal migration trends to Florida's panhandle, despite broader demographic challenges in the U.S. housing market [2] Company Performance - Average lot prices have increased from $86,000 to $150,000 over the past year, indicating strong demand for developments [3] - Sales have risen by 63%, net income has increased by 55%, and EBITDA has grown by 33%, showcasing disciplined execution and favorable market positioning [3] - The company has engaged in shareholder-friendly actions, including share buybacks and a recent dividend increase, enhancing confidence in long-term cash flow [3] Investment Perspective - JOE is characterized as a high-quality, inflation-resistant investment opportunity, particularly appealing for long-term investors seeking exposure to coastal migration and lifestyle-driven housing demand [4] - The company is viewed as a rare long-duration asset due to its strategic land portfolio in a structurally undersupplied region [4] Market Sentiment - JOE is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 26 hedge fund portfolios holding JOE at the end of Q2, down from 32 in the previous quarter [6]