Charter Communications, Inc. (CHTR): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - Charter Communications, Inc. is viewed positively due to its resilient core businesses, accelerating free cash flow (FCF), and aggressive share buybacks, which support a compelling long-term risk/reward profile [1][5][6] Financial Performance - Charter reported third-quarter results with revenue and EBITDA showing modest year-over-year declines of 0.9% and 1.5% respectively, but adjusted revenue grew 0.4% and EBITDA was roughly flat when accounting for one-off merger costs and other factors [2] - The stock initially reacted negatively, gapping down 6.5% before recovering to close up 1.3% as investors analyzed the report [2] Subscriber Trends - The company lost 109,000 broadband subscribers due to intense competition, particularly from fiber and AT&T's fixed wireless access rollout, although average revenue per user (ARPU) remained stable [3] - Mobile services showed strong performance with a 22% year-over-year subscriber growth, nearing 20% penetration in its market, with potential to reach 50% over the next five years [3] Cash Flow and Share Buybacks - Charter's cash flow generation is robust, supported by tax benefits and normalized working capital, allowing the company to repurchase $1.8 billion in shares this quarter, reducing the share count by 2.4% [4] - Peak capital expenditures are expected to moderate starting in the second half of 2025, which could nearly double free cash flow over the next two years even without significant revenue growth [5] Strategic Outlook - The company is exploring strategic options, including new mobile offerings through a T-Mobile MVNO partnership, which adds potential upside [5] - John Malone's retirement is noted as the end of an era, but it is not expected to cause strategic disruption [5]